Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Critical Minerals, Export Restrictions and WTO Law after the Indonesia Dispute - Journal of World Trade View Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Critical Minerals, Export Restrictions and WTO Law after the Indonesia Dispute by - Journal of World Trade Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Critical Minerals, Export Restrictions and WTO Law after the Indonesia Dispute 59 6

The governance of global trade in critical minerals has gained renewed urgency amid the accelerating energy transition. The objective to secure access to critical minerals contends with the industrialization objective of certain trade restrictions that advance economic diversification goals. Yet, the recent report on Critical Energy Transition Minerals by the United Nations (UN) Secretary General’s Panel cautions against static trade rules that hinder structural transformation and value-addition based on critical minerals. Considering this backdrop and the 2022 WTO panel ruling in Indonesia – Raw Materials, this article considers it urgent and necessary to critically examine the adequacy of prevailing international trade rules pertaining to export restrictions under the WTO, from the perspective of mineral-rich developing countries. The panel’s assessment of issues under Article XI:2(a) of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), such as the creation of a new market, and the extension of a ‘critical shortage’ test to the finite, exhaustible nature of critical minerals, is analysed to understand the contentious relationship between law and the long-term minerals-based industrialization plans of a developing nation. The article further identifies contradictory policy justifications required by different WTO provisions, which effectively place mineral-rich countries between a rock and a hard place. In effect, it fills a critical gap in the literature on critical minerals by focusing on the developmental implications of international trade law for mineral-rich developing countries. In doing so, it draws attention to existing legal frameworks and their effects, and aims to inform the design of more responsive, equitable trade frameworks.

Journal of World Trade