In the last ten years
quantum technology has attracted billions of dollars worth of investment.
Propelled by the promises of significant speed-ups in calculating chemical
interactions, improvements in sensor technology, and obliterating the
cryptographic protocols that currently secure our internet communication,
dozens of states have launched national training programmes to educate the next
cohort of scientists and engineers. These shifts can reshape the world’s
military and security landscape. How to manage the approach to the quantum
future is now a pressing policy agenda, and the go-to approach has been to
apply trade-restrictive measures. In this article we report on the pathways
made possible to trade restriction by international trade law and show that
through the application of its export licensing scheme, the US has effectively divided
the world into four groups, applying pressure on other states to match its
export policies. China, which belongs to an unfavourable group, is forced to
seek technology sovereignty and has responded with its own export policy and
controls on raw materials. We analyse this dynamic in terms of global trade,
through the perspective of General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade/ World Trade
Organization (GATT/WTO) and conclude by asking whether we are witnessing the
last stages of international trade as a rule-based system.