This paper analyses
the determinants of cartel duration by using a dataset of 120 cases sanctioned
by the Brazilian Competition Authority (CADE) between 1999 and 2022, which
corresponds to all cartels sanctioned by CADE in Brazil from its inception
until December 2022. The research considers the starting and the ending dates
of the infringement as indicated in the case files, and it reveals an average
duration of four years per cartel. Around 20% of the cartels had a very short
duration (less than three months), while the longest cartel durations were
around twenty years per cartel (i.e., the cartels in the markets of cement,
salt extraction and marine hoses). The research then focuses in exploring the
key determinants that may affect the duration of cartels, including the
affected economic sector, the number of defendants and the geographic scope
(i.e., local, national or international cartel). For this purpose, the research
provides a statistics description of the database, which includes more than
2,500 defendants and total fines of around ten billion BRL (two billion Euros).
The paper also explores possible correlations between these key determinants
and the duration of cartels, by applying tests to measure the intensity of the
correlations and its statistical significance, in addition to a regression
exercise using ordinary least squares (OLS) and weighted least squares (WLS) to
complete the analysis. Last, a cartel survival estimation based on a
Kaplan-Meier modelling indicates the probability of a cartel surviving after a
given number of years, as done in similar academic work related to other
jurisdictions. The paper concludes with a summary of the key findings and
suggestions for future work.